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Evans can time trial well. But will it be good enough for tonight? Photo: AFP

I am so excited about tonight! Cadel is in a strong position and is the real danger to be wearing the maillot jaune in Paris. Evans is only 57 seconds behind Andy Schleck and so will need to ride 58 seconds faster on the 42.5km/h stage tonight to win the Tour. I think that is achievable.

It must be tonight as it is an important unofficial rule to not attack on the last day – even if you are only a few seconds down, the idea being that you have all accomplished an incredible feat and should enjoy that fact as you ride into Paris. Thus tonight will be the last opportunity for the riders to win.

57 seconds is highly achievable for Cadel, but not a foregone conclusion.

“Of course I would like to take more time going into the time trial. I would rather be in yellow with five minutes …”

We would like that too Cadel. The reality is that Cadel must be exhausted. He has had to attack basically by himself for two straight days over several massive mountains – chasing down Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador. You have to ask yourself: can he do it?

I guess we will have to wait and see. I am so excited though. The first Australian victory in the Tour de France could be only hours away.

I still think Evans will win, but we won’t know till tonight!

If you are on twiter, make sure you check out he #yellforcadel hash-tag as it will be going nuts tonight!

Ok. What happened last night?

Andy Schleck pulled off an incredible 60km attack on all the other heads of state with breakaway riders positioned perfectly for him.

Alberto Contador – 3 time tour champion was broken – again! Not to mention he spent most of the stage chatting to one of his main rivals Sammy Sanchez!

Thomas Voeckler has kept the yellow jersey for 10 incredible stages.

Cadel Evans, single-handedly pulled and then dropped most of the worlds best riders up a 13km HC climb to claw back 2 crucial minutes on Schleck!

This Tour is exciting not only for the action it is serving up but for the continual surprises! Schleck gets dropped one day and then manages a 60km solo break the next!

I honestly would not be surprised if we see Contador pull out something similarly amazing tonight!

So. What does Cadel need to do in all this mayhem?

1/ Not attack. This Tour will probably not be won tonight, it will be won tomorrow night in the individual time trial. Evans needs to resist the temptation to attack Schleck to close the time gap. He won’t be able to drop Andy and will have lost precious energy that he will need for the time trial.

2/ Stay with the Schlecks Evans needs to just stick to the schlecks and ensure they don’t get any more time on him

3/ Ride like the wind tomorrow!!

Last night did nothing but bolster my belief that Evans is the man to win this year! Now I guess we wait and see.

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Ok, I appreciate that staying up to 2am watching men in tights cycling on the other side of the world is not everyone’s cup of tea. Everyone is different.

But lots of people have never really given the Tour a chance, which is a real shame as it is a genuinely exciting, entertaining and inspiring sport once you get into it!

Do you know that it is primarily a team sport that is governed more by tradition and gentlemanly etiquette than anything else?
Do you know that a cyclist can use all his energy, take himself to the brink of collapsing from pain solely to set up another cyclist to sprint 100m for all the glory?
Do you know that the tour is the worlds largest annual sporting event attracting more live and television spectators than any other sporting event?

Why do so many people love the Tour?

Well, tune into sbs tonight around 10pm to find out! Tonight the riders will not only be climbing three mountains so steep and long that they are uncategorisable, they will be attacking each other and riding as fast as their legs will physically let them. We will see tactics play out as strategic riders like the Schlecks or Sammy Sanchez try to outwit the more pure muscle riders like Contador and Basso! But most of all we will most likely see an Australian put on the coveted yellow jersey!*

So if you have ever entertained the thought of giving the Tour a go then tonight will be the night to watch!

*yes. I know I have predicted this incorrectly several times this year, but I just have a good feeling about tonight!! Go Cadel!!

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I was writing this on my phone and had no cool cycling photos. So I took a photo of my shoes! Blog posts need pictures!

The Tourmalet.

Tonight’s stage is all about the Tourmalet.

It is a mountain, in fact it is one of the toughest mountains in France. But it is more than a mountain. It is hell for sprinters. Mark Cavendish, Thor Hushvod, Andre Griepel will all struggle today.

The winner of the 1910 Tour walking up the Tourmalet. Tough then, tough now!

But the Tourmalet is something completely different for climbers. A mountain is always an opportunity. Set a fast tempo and see who can hang on, gain minutes over main rivals by setting a pace that they physically cannot match. Attack repeatedly until some of the world’s fittest men look like they are Homer Simpson on a treadmill.

The Tourmalet was the climb where a young cyclist called Eddy Merckx showed his immense strength for the first time. It was his first Tour and he rode away from the peloton in 1969 to ride solo for 100+km and gain an 80 minute advantage over his competitors! Merckx of course went on to win 5 Tours and become (in my humble opinion) the best cyclist of all time. They called him the cannibal because he was ruthless and noone could match him. He was never satisfied with one jersey, Merckx would constantly get all three jerseys – the clean sweep. He was also not solely about the Tour, Merckx went in everything and won everything, we averaged a race a week for 6 years! Wow.

But this is not about Merckx, it is about the Tourmalet

For Contador, Schleck(s) and Evans this is the opportunity to get in yellow, to put their names at the top of the leader board.  They will need to drop Thomas Voeckler, which is not an easy thing to do having seen the form he  is in and the way he seems to use his tongue to gain extra concentration! Mot easy, but as good an opportunity as any.

After the end of tonight’s stage I think we will see a change in yellow. I have said this previously, but I am hoping that Cadel is wearing yellow by the end of tonight.

Come on Cadel, you can do it! You have a heart that is twice the size of a normal human heart! (literally that is, I am not making a statement about his capacity to love) Use it to pump blood and courage and determination through your muscly body! Do it for Aussie cycling and local bike stores; do it to finally get the Tour on the morning news! Do it to increase cycling culture in Sydney; do it to make more fans of cycling so I have more people to talk to about cadence and steak.

Go Cadel.

The other thing that we will see tonight is French cyclists attacking! Bastille day.

I am so tired!

I caught the 6am flight from Sydney to Perth today. I am due on the 12:30pm flight back to Sydney, which is pretty rough but it has been made worse by the wonderful tour de France. I went to bed at the end of the stage last night but couldn’t fall asleep! I don’t know if it was because I was worried for vino (nah…) or concerned about how well Thomas Voeckler is riding in the yellow (did you see that attack last night) – either way I didn’t get any sleep.

And then it was 4:15am and I had to catch a cab to the airport.

I’m aiming to make it to the end of tonight’s stage having not slept in 40 hours and having literally flown across the continent and back!

Why?

Because the tour is awesome and makes regularly sane people do crazy things! If you have ever considered watching the tour why not start tonight?

I’ll see you at 10pm!

I will be the guy drinking “Mother”

This is just disgraceful. There should be criminal charges for this! 

If you weren’t watching the race last night you missed this horrific crash involving a car whose driver was not concentrating.

The amazing thing is that the rider got back on his bike and finished the stage – to claim the polka dot jersey! What a day of drama and racing! You would be kicking yourself if you missed it!

Thor Husovd. They call him the "God of Thunder". Photo by Michael Steele/Getty Images Europe

Wherever you are I want you to stand up and clap loudly for Thor Hushovd! How is he still in yellow? How did he manage to stay with Contador, Schleck, Evans, Vinokourov, Basso etc in last night’s hilly stage to keep the maillot jaune ? I mean, he is a sprinter, an excellent one at that having won two green sprinter jerseys (2005, 2009), but what he is not is an all rounder who can match the big names. He has certainly surprised everyone by keeping the yellow, even himself, he said this after the stage:

“After the stage yesterday I didn’t believe I could stay in yellow after this stage. But I also said I’d do everything I can to defend the jersey.”

It is great to see a sprinter going head to head with the great climbers.

Shame it won’t last.

Tonight, Hushovd will no longer be in yellow. Tonight is a sprinter’s nightmare and it will split up the peloton, shake up the leaders and (hopefully) put Cadel Evans in yellow. Tonight we will watch 208km of up and down and up again. Tonight the cyclists will climb three category 2 climbs, three category 3 climbs and a category 4 climb. The most impressive of which is the Col du Pas de Peyrol (Le Puy Mary) at an impressive 1589 m. There will be  7.7 km climb with a gradient up to 6.2 %, closely followed by  Col de Prat de Bouc (Plomb du Cantal) (1392 m) – 8.0 km climb to 6.1 %  154km into the race.

Stage 9 Profile. A sprinter's nightmare

Tomorrow is a rest day and the riders will be well and truly  earning it!

Cadel should be in yellow by the end of tonight, he has just been riding so well! A stage win a few nights ago and then that impressive finish last night – so close to breaking away from Hushovd and the peloton to get the yellow! Also, BMC have just been riding so well together – again demonstrated last night when they reeled Vinokourov back and removed any danger of him taking the yellow instead of Evans! They should be able to take Evans to the base of the Col de Prat de Bouc and launch him with the other lead riders to get away from Hushovd.

I may be horribly wrong, but we will see Evans receiving a yellow jersey at around 2am tomorrow morning.

Alberto Contador. Photo: Getty Images

Alberto Contador is without a doubt the best Grand Tour rider alive today; this is a big call, but it is true.

Alberto Contador is without a doubt one of the most arrogant riders alive today; this is not a very big call – and it is just as true!

Contador is one of only a handful of riders to have won all three grand tours (tour de France, Vuelta a Espana, and the Giro d’Italia) and he is the clear favourite to win this years Tour! Contador won last years tour in impressive form, making even the great Lance Armstrong look frail, old and weak. When Contador rides his fans  (solely located in Spain) affectionately call him ‘el pistolero’ (the gunner), for he is as fast as a bullet and his signature celebration is to shoot imaginary pistols into the air as he crosses the line. When I first heard that he was called el pistolero I assumed from my limited Spanish that it had something to do with car pistons, as his legs are almost mechanical when he is racing up a mountain.

Since 2006 Contador has won every Grand Tour he has entered. He is a freakishly good cyclist.

The similarities to Contador are uncanny

I have used this analogy before but it still holds true – when Contador races he looks like the bad guy from terminator 2! You know, the creepy cop made out of liquid metal that just won’t die! Even when Arnold Schwarzenegger freezes him with liquid nitrogen and then shoots him into a thousand little pieces he still manages to re-form and chase John Connor – humanities only hope!

The only way to kill him is to throw him into a vault of liquid hot magma and destroy his Cybernet chip. We can change tomorrow, today! We can stop SkyNet!

But I digress. Back to Contador.

Contador was always a talented up and coming rider, thus it was no great surprise when he won in the 2007 Tour. But that is where things started going really wrong for the pistol. In 2008 he was not allowed to compete in the Tour for his alleged involvement in the controversial Operacion Puerto doping scandal that plagued so many cyclists including Vinokourov and Valverde.

Contador was cleared of all wrongdoing, but because his team was involved he was banned from riding. That would make anyone angry, especially a cocky rider like Contador.

And so he did what most good emos do and he repressed his anger, allowing it to boil up nice and strong and then giving it one outlet: no, not rock music and eye liner, but an uncompromising desire to win!

Win he did in 2009 and then 2010. Both times out classing Lance Armstrong and out powering Andy Schleck. He returned to cycling the undisputed king of the Tour.

Press Conference - denying his guilt. Photo: AFP/Getty Imgaes

But of course there is more to Contador’s story. During a rest day in last year’s Tour Contador underwent a standard drug test, one of many he would have done during the 3-week race. His sample was sent away for testing and came back positive for a banned performance enhancing substance: Clenbuterol.

Contador held a press conference and blamed the test result on some contaminated steak while asserting his innocence. He was immediately banned from all competitive races, though by this stage his season had finished so it had no real impact on his cycling. Early this year in January the Spanish Cycling Federation handed down a one-year ban on Contador for the test results. Contador challenged this ruling – saying that the amount detected was so small that it would not have helped him anyway. The highly unbiased Spanish Cycling Federation decided that this was reasonable and overturned the ban allowing him to compete in all his planned 2011 races.

This was not cool. Even if it was because of contaminated steak and Contador had no intention of taking the substance, you can’t give leniency to riders in this situation. Every cyclist in the Tour knows you only drink water that is given to you by your race manager and you only eat food that has been specially prepared by your nutritionist.  Otherwise you open the gate to riders taking drugs and then blaming it on factors outside their control – water that was given them by a spectator, or dinner in a restaurant that someone must have contaminated. With cycling’s already damaged reputation you just can’t allow this! This may sound harsh, but it is the world of professional cycling.

The Tour certainly has baggage. Photo: SOJKA WLADYSLAW

Now there is another body that governs cycling (UCI) and once the Spanish let Contador off without a suspension they called him to the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) to get a more just verdict. Unfortunately Contador’s lawyers have managed to get this trial delayed till August i.e. after the Tour, and so Contador is free to compete in (and probably win) the Tour.

So if you see people booing at Contador or calling him a “cheat” you now know why.

What do you think? Do you think it is fair to punish Contador for something that did not enhance his performance and he most likely didn’t intend to do; or does he need to be punished to keep the bar raised high?

Excuse the Russian, it was the best video I could find so close to the finish of the race.

This footage holds good signs for a strong Cadel Evans who has shown that he can stay with the climbers and that his climbing ability is still strong. The way he got to the front of that group was strategic and impressive and he was moving fast (it was an uphill finish)! But you would be foolish to not be worried by the way Alberto Contador looked as he launched his final attack. I know Evans held him off, but if you look at just those two riders you can see the marked difference in speed and also acceleration – an important element for attacks.

But Cadel will get a boost from this, having a psychological edge is just as important as having a physical edge. It will also help him to relax somewhat, a stage win is not a Tour win, but it is still a very prestigious accomplishment!

This photo is so much better knowing that Contador didn't win. Photo: Christophe Ena / AP

The other good sign is the teamwork of BMC, Evans would have not been able to get back into the front group had it not been for his team mate Marcus Burghardt who came back after Evans had to change bikes and rode him back to the front. You can’t win the Tour if you don’t have a supportive, strong team around you. This year, Cadel has a supportive, strong team around him that want him to win! Moreover Cadel appreciates his team, he hads this to say at the end of the stage:

“With 15km to go I think someone crashed into my rear derailleur and I had to change bikes. Marcus Burghardt helped me out… he is my hero today.”

On a side note, how suspicious was that motorbike crash? Right in front of Cadel Evans as he was riding back into the peloton after a bike change. I am no conspiracy theorist, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that rider was Spanish!

The end of this stage is a small metaphor for how I believe this Tour will play out. I believe Cadel can win, but I also believe it will happen by the narrowest of margins holding off an aggressive, attacking Alberto Contador. I guess we will have to wait and see!

Mark Cavendish crashing in the 2010 Tour de Suisse. Photo: AFP

Tuning in to the SBS coverage of Stage 4 to see rain, water on the road and droplets of water  on the camera man’s lens made me think of only one thing:

Crashes! Crashes! Crashes!

“Crashes! Crashes! Crashes!” is hard to say out loud (try it) but it is even harder to watch! My stomach churns every time I see a rider come off his bike and scrape along the asphalt; but I’m nothing short of impressed every time they get back on the bike and finish the stage. Last night in stage 3 we saw a Cofidis rider do a full somersault with only 600m to go! Ouch! With 18 days of riding left we are sure to see many more crashes like it!

Crashes are just part of life for a Tour cyclist. The Tour combines all the ingredients for nasty crashes: flood of spectators, sharp turns, slippery roads, long days in the saddle and riding in such close proximity to each other, it is definitely a recipe for mayhem and carnage!

But of course the most crucial crash so far in this Tour came in the first stage. The crash that has given Cadel Evans and Andy Schleck a comfortable time barrier between them and Alberto Contador. It reminds me of stage 2 of the 2009 Tour when Lance Armstrong also stole valuable seconds away from Contador in a sudden change of wind.

Feel free to watch – if you have the stomach for it.

Crashes are always controversial, with many cyclists wanting to point fingers and blame someone for their misfortune. Probably the most controversial crash in Tour history came when a policeman who was meant to be watching the crowd decided to take a photo of the peloton instead (allegedly). Do you think he was taking a photo?

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